Oscar Predictions

First, I'd like to say that I applaud Oscar's attempt to become "hip" this year with a set overhaul and a People Magazine-mandated sexy host. But lets be honest. Hugh Jackman only appeals to the 50+ broadway crowd and a small (ok, small and rabid) army of comic geeks. And how is a 60's throwback stage really gonna reel in the youth of today? Prediction: numbers may be higher than last year (Watching No Country for Old Men battle There Will Be Blood was like watching paint dry. Doom and gloom vs more doom and gloom? I'd rather watch House reruns.), but it'll be the same old dog and pony show.   All.  Four.  Hours.  Of.  It.

Ok, here are my predictions: +/-

BEST ACTOR
Sean Penn, because he actually smiles.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger. Morbid, quasi inappropriate sidebar: If he weren't dead, would he win? My guess is probably not...the academy doesn't really have a history of bestowing marquis awards on comic book films, no matter how good the performance.

BEST ACTRESS
While my vote's for Melissa Leo, we all know it's the year of Kate. Hopefully she'll win so people can shut up about her already.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is tough. It's a toss-up between Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis. Either way a minority walks away with the little gold man, which is just the sort of PC shit the Academy is trying to embrace.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
That cute little robot.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
I'm torn between The Dark Knightand Slumdog Millionaire. However, since Christopher Nolan was cheated out of a nomination for Best Director, I feel like The Dark Knight should be recognized here.

BEST DIRECTOR
My knee jerk reaction is Danny Boyle, but I wonder if all the recent bad press about Slumdog will hurt his chances. Makes me want to choose David Fincher, although the academy hasn't been kind to him in the past. Final answer: Stickin with the Brit.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
MAN ON WIRE!!(kudos, Magnolia)

BEST FOREIGN FILM
My friend Dan made a good case for Waltz with Bashir, but I think I'm going to go with The Class. Although I haven't seen either, The Class strikes me as the film most in line with Oscar precedent. It would be pretty sweet if Bashir won, though. Israeli filmmaking deserves some more press and accolades.

BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire. Jai Ho!